The hour of the predators

Concluding that the world is changing is as basic as it is irrelevant. The problem is that, in the current times, when it is all too obvious that substantial changes are occurring in our global way of life, it is not always easy to understand what is at stake. And without a structured view of reality, not only do we not understand where we are, but we also have no chance of trying to anticipate what might happen.

It is therefore important to listen to the opinion of informed observers with personal knowledge of global political changes. Someone like Giuliano da Empoli, who published a book called “ The Wizard of the Kremlin” just over three years ago. He did so at a time when one part of the world still dreamed of the Russia of the Tsars, brimming with sophistication and artistic genius, literary or musical, while another looked to the magical homeland of a supposedly egalitarian system that would create a new man. In practice, both sides showed an admiring devotion to Russia.

But, as Empoli explained in May 2023, at the Gulbenkian Foundation, at the opening of the New Casino Conferences, Russia is nothing like that. Russia is more like a Disneyland of gangsters , which Putin masks with creative religious and historical references, intending to justify the sacred use of violence with the defense of his supposed historical rights.

Giuliano da Empoli has now published a new book that deals, this time, with the forces that are submerging liberal societies, forces that are paving the way for a new, undemocratic and violently authoritarian world. In the confusing noise of this black hole that seems to be swallowing up the intellectual and economic heritage of recent decades, it is worth trying to understand what is happening, and then aiming to intuit what might happen to us.

The book “ The Hour of the Predators ”, not yet translated into Portuguese, attempts to describe the vast transformation that is taking place. Empoli points out historical parallels, seeking to identify and characterize the actors of this transformation. The following themes are covered in his book: the suicide of democracies, empires and geostrategy, the new revolutionaries and the masters of technology, which are described below.

The suicide of democracies

Over the past 30 years, the extraordinary economic results of globalization have lifted the vast majority of the world’s population out of poverty, with humanity reaching levels of wealth never before achieved. However, abundance sometimes produces uncomfortable side effects, and Western political elites, no longer having economic and social causes to fight for, have plunged into defending identity-based causes that they have laboriously invented, expressly ignoring the problems that affect people. Multiple policies in defense of gender, LGBT+, pro-immigration, anti-racist, anti-colonialist and anti-imperialist causes, which deep down the vast majority of the population never understood or recognized as their own, have come to dominate the political agenda. This alienation from reality inevitably provoked a reaction that eventually came to the surface. And so, the purification of a world – which had become amorphous and sinful – came to be considered by many as an urgent and legitimate objective. Traditional politicians have been losing influence in democratic societies in favour of others who do not dispense with violence to confront the elites they consider responsible for the unbearable cultural aggression. These new actors, anchoring themselves in mobilizing slogans, declare war on what they say is limiting individual freedoms, such as vaccination campaigns, the priority defense of animals and the planet and, in the case of Europe, the defense of federalism.

Empires and geostrategy

At the same time that the seeds of popular protest are being sown, it is becoming clear that the weakening of Western democratic societies is a central geostrategic objective of the Russians and Chinese. Without the help of the Tsars, writers or artists, and lacking the Marxist religion, Putin chose to find in the cult of the nation and traditionalist values ​​a tool for the global affirmation of his interests, nurturing a nationalist, conservative ideology with religious inspirations. At the same time, he has placed propaganda resources on ideological export, unleashing the forces of protest and hatred to destroy enemy castles. The Russian epic has been very successful, already having participated in the victory of Brexit and the double election of Trump. The result for Putin could not be more complete than what happened when America, the undisputed leader of the liberal order, joined the forces that aim to destroy the democratic world.

History, contrary to what some say, is made by men who change the course of events, and Trump is a political animal who works wonders in our time. He manages to keep the world suspended by his imaginary agenda, which he unloads, without rest, in floods of decisions across all time zones. For Empoli, Trump is the perfect example that “ there is no relationship between intellectual capacity and political intelligence” . Trump does not read any books. In fact, he does not read anything, not even the summary notes that his advisors prepare for him. Trump lives by orality, “making it impossible to transmit to him a mere structured thought” . With Trump, we are light years away from the knowledge that is accumulated in universities or in research offices, but we are very close to the superficial and instantaneous emotions of the anonymous voter. The problem is that, when you hand the keys to your car and your house to someone with this intellectual and moral structure, you are faced with unexpected results, as is currently happening with the economy and international trade. Trump is, without a doubt, the greatest example of inspiration for the current demolitionists of the institutions and rules of our societies. But he is not the only one. With varying degrees of success, his followers create islands of liberating violence, and only grow pale when they encounter another revolutionary of greater caliber, to whom they end up paying homage. Physics prevents everyone from being the most important at the same time. At this point, the new revolutionaries are no longer marginal, because chaos is no longer the weapon of the rebels, but has become the hallmark of the dominant. It is not yet clear what future these revolutionaries, committed as they are to the act of destruction, seek. As history reminds us, the destruction of a political and economic reality is followed by a new normality that sometimes ends up rewarding a class that did not even participate in the previous scorched earth phase. These days, it is impossible to tell whether these revolutionaries have a purpose beyond the mere exercise of power and personal enrichment. But what we do know is that the conquest of power requires great resources, and so the success of revolutionaries requires the financial support of those who are willing to join the conquest movement. These voluntary actors can eventually recover the investment they made by capturing, in their own time and in their favor, the decisions of the new power.

The lords of technology

The heroes of Silicon Valley are examples of unimaginable success, due to the quantum advances with which they propelled our civilization. They invented chips – taming the machines that use them – and ended up imposing technology as a kind of plasma in which humans merge to share the power of the gods. Along the path to success, where they learned to disregard any of the current rules and to blow up all the restrictions and formalities of pre-technological society, these new masters became rich in ways never seen before in the history of humanity. And the entire world ended up enthusiastically welcoming itself under their magical wings, made of software and hardware that became indispensable to life. Politicians, for their part, began to pay them poignant homage, without caring about what these heroes represented, beyond the algorithms and gadgets they sold, since they were, as a rule, absolute cultural illiterates. Furthermore, these men even had a human face, being the product of the California intellectual melting pot, which was supposed to care about people, their quality of life and even the health of the planet. For the creators of PayPal, Facebook, Amazon, LinkedIn, Tesla, Uber, Netflix, Star Link and so many other domains, the unlimited wealth they acquired in such a short time gave them galactic power. Sooner or later, this power would influence their destiny, making them succumb to the vertigo of being able to shape the world that, from their own experience, they considered imperfect. Entering politics was just a matter of opportunity and for Peter Thiel, the shadow cardinal of the movement, his entry happened with Trump, still in his first term. However, the new President's lack of preparation prevented Thiel from making his mark. Peter Thiel will quietly leave the scene, to return with weapons and luggage in the second round, with a plan drawn up and a schedule set for a lightning conquest. He brought his partners with him, led by Elon Musk, and with them enough money to cover the costs of the electoral campaigns, especially Trump's. These days, Thiel has already managed to impose his men in key positions in the American administration, positions that they share with the stars of Fox News. They say that Peter Thiel is obsessed with preserving his wealth, particularly with regard to taxes. Elon Musk, on the other hand, has a more hallucinogenic connection with money. Both share the ambition to shape the world into a reality that they say is new, but which in fact finds unexpected parallels in the dream sellers of the 1930s. In fairness and propriety, Thiel and Musk can be considered fascists or Nazis. Right now, they are the real winners, as they have managed to dismantle the federal agencies that regulate their activity and, according to reports, have recently accumulated more billion-dollar contracts from the Federal Government for their algorithms and technologies. The litmus test of the true influence of this group of superpowers will come when Congress votes on the fabulous trillion- dollar tax cut. It would be unexpected, but not impossible, for Trump to fail to deliver on his promises to do so, as he sees a serious risk of social protest that could put an end to his reign. Hitler, a close friend of the capitalists and industrialists who helped him gain power, had no qualms about taxing his millionaire supporters – to the point of total financial exhaustion – in the name of defending the bread of German workers.

Giuliano da Empoli's book ends by quoting Joseph de Maistre, minister of Louis XVI, who took refuge in Switzerland following the French Revolution:

“We must have the courage to admit that for a long time we did not understand the revolution we are witnessing. For a long time we considered it a passing event. But we were wrong, this is a new era.”

As we know, the revolution of Maistre's time was not temporary and its effects are still felt today, 250 years later. Empoli reminds us to be prepared for a new era – and its new developments – which, among other things, presupposes the “ imposition of the will of the strong through the free use of the axe and the sword ”.

According to Empoli, “ An era of limitless violence opens up before us, while the defenders of freedom appear particularly ill-prepared for the challenge that awaits them .”

We are therefore waiting for the scenes from the next chapters.