The 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature: These Writers Have the Best Chance of Winning

On October 9th, the eyes of the entire literary world will turn to Stockholm. That's when we'll learn the name of this year's winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature – an award that has shaped the canon and set trends in world literature for over a century.

The coming days are being dubbed "Nobel Calling" in the industry—and with good reason. Winners learn of the Swedish Academy's decision literally at the last minute, often in the middle of the night, when a congratulatory phone call rouses them from their sleep. It's this aura of mystery that electrifies the Nobel Prize not only for writers but also for readers and publishers.

This year, in keeping with the unwritten rule of alternating awards between men and women, the men are the favorites. The shortlists of bookmakers and literary critics include names that have been recurring for years: Haruki Murakami, Mircea Cartarescu, Thomas Pynchon, Gerald Murnane, Salman Rushdie, and László Krasznahorkai.

Spanish-language authors also have a strong voice – the last Nobel Prize winner from this circle was Mario Vargas Llosa , and since then we have been waiting for another Latin American writer to receive the Alfred Nobel Medal.

Here are the 10 names most frequently chosen by bookmakers:

1. Can Xue
2. Anne Carson
3. Haruki Murakami
4. Mircea Cartarescu
5. Adonis
6. Gerald Murnane
7. Thomas Pynchon
8. Don De Lillo
9. Laszlo Krasznahorkai
10. Salman Rushdie

Hanna Krall's name also appears on the list of contenders. The Polish master of reportage is now 90 years old, but her work still resonates beyond her home country. The chances of winning a second Polish Nobel Prize in just six years since Olga Tokarczuk's triumph are slim, though her nomination alone speaks volumes about the strength of her writing.

The Academy's upcoming decision also impacts the publishing market. This fall, reissues and premieres of books by authors mentioned in the forecasts will appear. ArtRage is reissuing Cartarescu's "Nostalgia," Czarne Publishing House has prepared a fresh edition of Gerald Murnane's "Plains," and Pynchon's classics, "49 Under the Hammer" and "Gravity's Rainbow," are returning to bookstores.

This is a clever trick – readers eagerly reach for names that appear in the Nobel context, and publishers do not want to miss such an opportunity.

Since 1901, the Nobel Prize in Literature has been awarded over 100 times. There have been years when no laureates were selected, and four years when the award went to two people simultaneously. Interestingly, only 19 of the laureates to date have been women – confirming that the issue of gender balance remains a pressing concern.

Unlike the Booker Prize, which is awarded for a single novel, the Nobel Prize honors a lifetime of work. Therefore, the Academy's decision can sometimes spark heated debate.

So who will stand alongside Fosse, Tokarczuk, Coetzee, and Vargas Llosa in the pantheon of laureates? We'll find out in just a few days. Until then, all we can do is speculate—and read.